ELSTAT: Inflation rose to 11.6% in July

Inflation rose to 11.6% in July according to the data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). In June inflation stood at 12.1% and in May at 11.3% with the impact of the energy crisis leaving its mark on fuel, food and transport prices.

According to ELSTAT data, from the comparison of the General CPI of the month of July 2022 with the corresponding Index of July 2021, an increase of 11.6% resulted against an increase of 1.4% that occurred during the corresponding comparison of the year 2021 with 2020.

The evolution of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of July 2022 (reference year 2020=100.0) is depicted as follows:

The CPI in July 2022 compared with July 2021, increased by 11.6%. In July 2021, the annual rate of change of the CPI was 1.4%.

The CPI in July 2022 compared with June 2022, decreased by 1.8%. In July 2021, the monthly rate of change of the CPI was -1.4%.

The average CPI for the twelve – month period from August 2021 to July 2022, compared with the corresponding index for the period August 2020 to July 2021 increased by 7.1%. The annual rate of change of the average CPI between the twelve – month period August 2020 to July 2021 in comparison to the period August 2019 to July 2020 was -1.1%

Analysis of changes of the CPI: July 2022

I. Monthly rates of change: July 2022 compared with June 2022

The 1.8% decrease of the Overall CPI in July 2022, compared with the corresponding index in June 2022 is, mainly, due to the changes in the groups of goods and services as follows:

1. A decrease of:
• 0.1% in the group Food and non-alcoholic beverages, due to the decrease, mainly, in the prices of fresh fruit. This increase was partly offset by the decrease, mainly, in the prices of: bread and cereals, beef, poultry, fresh whole milk, cheese, olive oil, fresh vegetables, preserved or processed vegetables, coffee.
• 23.3% in the group Clothing and footwear, due to the period of summer sales.
• 0.3% in the group Housing, due to the decrease, mainly, in the prices of electricity. This decrease was partly offset by the increase, mainly, in the prices of natural gas.
• 2.9% in the group Transport, due to the decrease, mainly, in the prices of: fuels and lubricants, tickets for passenger transport by air. This decrease was partly offset by the increase, mainly, in the prices of new motor cars.

2. An increase of:
• 0.6% in the group Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of alcoholic beverages (not served).
• 0.2% in the group Household equipment, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of non-durable household articles.
• 0.3% in the group Hotel-Cafés-Restaurants, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of hotels-motels-inns.
• 0.4 in the group in the group Miscellaneous goods and services, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of other appliances
and articles for personal care.

II. Annual rates of change: July 2022 compared with July 2021

The 11.6% increase of the Overall CPI in July 2022, compared with the corresponding index in July 2021 is, mainly, due to the
changes in the groups of goods and services as follows:

1. An increase of:
• 13.0% in the group Food and non-alcoholic beverages due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of: bread and cereals, meat, fish, milk-cheese and eggs, oils and fats, vegetables,sugar-chocolates-sweets-ice creams, food n.e.c., coffee-cocoa-tea, mineral water-refreshments-fruit juices. This increase was partly offset by the decrease, mainly, in the prices of fresh fruit.
• 1.5% in the group Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of alcoholic beverages (not served).
• 3.4% in the group Clothing and footwear, due to the increase in the prices of clothing and footwear.
• 30.9% in the group Housing, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of: rentals for dwellings, electricity, natural gas, heating oil, solid fuels.
• 8.2% in the group Household equipment, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of: furniture and furnishings, household textiles, household appliances and repair, glassware-tableware and utensils of domestic use, non-durable household articles, domestic services.
• 0.7% in the group Health, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of: medical products, medical, dental and paramedical services, hospital care. This increase was partly offset by the decrease, mainly, in the prices of pharmaceutical products.
• 20.6% in the group Transport, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of: new motor cars, second hand motor cars, spare parts and accessories for motor cars, fuels and lubricants, maintenance and repair of motor cars-motor cycles, passenger transport by taxi, tickets for passenger transport by air, tickets for passenger transport by sea.
• 2.0% in the group Recreation and culture, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of: major durables for recreation and culture, small recreational items-flowers-pets, cinemas-theatres, stationary and drawing materials, package holidays. This increase was partly offset by the decrease, mainly, in the prices of: audiovisual and information processing equipment.
• 0.9% in the group Education, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of fees of secondary education.
• 6.4% in the group Hotel-Cafés-Restaurants, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of: restaurants-confectioneries-cafes, hotels-motels-inns.
• 2.5% in the group Miscellaneous goods and services, due to the increase, mainly, in the prices of other appliances and articles for personal care.

2. A decrease of:
• 2.1% in the group Communication, due to the decrease, mainly, in the prices of: mobile telephone equipment, telephone services.

Forecasts

The Commission for Greece predicts a jump in inflation to 8.9% for 2022, while at the same time it estimates that growth will reach 4%.

According to the European Commission’s summer estimates, headline inflation is forecast to reach 8.9% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023.

Also, real GDP is projected to grow by 4% in 2022 and slow to 2.4% in 2023.

It is worth noting that almost a month ago, the Bank of Greece also proceeded with an on-hand review. Inflation, based on the harmonized index of consumer prices, is expected to reach 7.6% in 2022, mainly due to the upward trend of energy goods, but also the revaluation of food items, while it will decelerate in 2023 and further in 2024, according to the recent report of BoG governor Yiannis Stournaras.