EBRD: Growth of 2.9% in Greece in 2022 due to the war – On-the-spot review by 1 percentage point

The EBRD has proceeded with a manual revision of the estimate for growth in Greece by 1 percentage point, stating that the Greek GDP will strengthen by 2.9% this year, and by 3.5% in 2023.

Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the EBRD, said: “The war in Ukraine has a profound impact on the economies in the EBRD-covered regions as well as worldwide. “Inflationary pressures were already high before the war and will certainly intensify now, which will have a disproportionate effect on many lower-income countries, as well as on the poorer sections of the population in most countries.”

Decline in tourism

Beyond that, she noted that a decline in Russian tourism would affect some tourism-dependent countries, such as Croatia and Greece, which, although not dependent on Russian or Ukrainian tourists, may accept a blow from the general decline in the willingness of tourists to travel mainly from Western European and North American countries due to higher costs and / or increased risks of the crisis spilling over.

According to the economist, skilled workers from Ukraine may provide a boost to some economies in the long run, especially in countries with high aging populations. In the short term, economies face budgetary pressures and administrative challenges due to the provision of housing, health care and education to people coming from Ukraine.

The EBRD forecasts that there will be a ceasefire within two months, followed by a major reconstruction effort in Ukraine, while sanctions on Russia are expected to remain in the foreseeable future.