Reduction of public debt from this year and return of Greece to primary surpluses from 2023 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts for Greece in a report released today.
According to the Fund’s Fiscal Monitor report, Greece is expected to record a primary deficit of 7.3% of GDP, which is limited to 1.3% in 2022. After rising to 0.2% in 2023, the surplus is expected to rise to 0, 6% of GDP in 2024, to 1% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
At the same time, this year the de-escalation of public debt is expected to begin, which last year, according to IMF estimates, amounted to 211.2% of GDP. It is estimated that it will be reduced to 206.7% this year and will fall below the limit of 200% of GDP (199.4%) in 2023.
The subsequent de-escalation is expected to be as follows: 192.4% in 2023, 188.2% in 2024, 184% of GDP in 2025 and 179.6% in 2026.
What will the fiscal adjustment be based on?
Fiscal adjustment will be based more on reducing public spending, which is projected to fall from 60.7% of GDP in 2020 to 59% this year and 52.4% in 2022 and to continue to decline in the coming years to reach 48.3% in 2026.
Government revenues are projected to decline slightly in 2022 and 2023 to 48.1% of GDP from 48.8% this year and then gradually decline to 46.8% in 2026.
The general government debt peaked, according to the IMF, at 2020 at 211.2% of GDP, while it is projected to decline this year to 206.7% and continue to de-escalate thereafter to decline in 2026 to 179.6%.