Recent official statistical data confirmed expectations of a recovery in the Greek economy from the third quarter of 2016, with a stronger-than-expected growth rate of 1.5 pct on an annual basis and 0.5 pct on a quarterly basis, as a result of high base effects, Alpha Bank said in its weekly economic bulletin.
Greek GDP fell by 2.2 pct, yr/yr, in the third quarter of 2015, according to revised figures, for a zero change in the January-September 2016 period, after a 0.6 pct decline in the same period last year.
Alpha Bank’s analysts said “it is particularly encouraging the fact that the Greek economy’s resilience in GDP terms is combined with a gradual decline in unemployment rate to 23.4 pct of the workforce in August from 24.6 pct in August 2015”.
The analysts noted a return of the Greek economy to positive growth rate would be significant if it could be combined with stronger growth rates in employment and reducing unemployment. They stressed that a reversal in the ratio between growth rates and productivity growth rates -expected from 2019 wit hthe help of upgraded infrastructure from higher investments on machinery equipment and constructions in the 2017-2018 period- will have positive effects on labor productivity and could lead to an unemployment rate of below 1/5 of the workforce by the end of the next decade.
Eurobank, in a weekly economic bulletin, also said that positive messages coming from Greek economic trends offered signs of a stabilization in the economy.
The bank’s analysts stressed that the contribution of net exports to economic growth was negative in the third quarter and attributed an increase in real GDP to domestic demand factors.
“A change in inventories and fixed-capital investments had a positive contribution,” the bulletin said.